In the base-rate appendix of Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner's book,
How Big Things Get Done, a table ranking eleven different categories shows that large IT projects run 73% over budget on average, and among those that exceed 50%, the average overrun is 447%.
Information technology has the worst tail on the list. Not the worst average, where nuclear waste storage and the Olympic Games are. The worst tail. When a technology project fails, it fails worse than a nuclear waste facility.
Most replatform decisions are priced on a single figure: the vendor's quote plus the integrator's projected number of months. The organization compares this figure with the cost of inaction to determine affordability.
The arithmetic only holds if outcomes cluster near the average. In a category with a tail this dramatic, they will likely not.
Nearly one in five large IT projects run over budget by more than 50%, averaging more than four times the original. Yet software migrations receive an exemption they have not earned, likely because the budget line appears as a purchase when, in reality, it behaves like a bet.
Teams commit to replatforms before they can possibly know what lies ahead. Integrations that turn out to be load-bearing. A content model that will not map cleanly. The mystery workflow undocumented since its creator left in 2021.
These factors will not surface during planning. They will appear downstream, when the organization is committed, the old system is partially decommissioned, and the cost of stopping outweighs the cost of continuing.
During an 18-month project, the business will evolve, and requirements will drift. Each change must be absorbed by a fixed scope. The Standish Group's CHAOS
research finds that small projects fare considerably better than large ones. Size correlates with failure because size scales project duration, which provides more time to unearth surprises.
Flyvbjerg's threshold is large projects, and much of his sample sits well above what a mid-market content platform migration costs. The transferable finding for smaller replatforms, though, is the shape, not the magnitude.
Long tails in software stem from committing before discovering and from scope that shifts while the clock is running. These conditions are not caused by budget size; they are weaknesses in a long project that is too rigid to absorb them.
A 12-month CMS migration is the same shape at smaller scale.
Techniques for managing tail risk on a replatform do not change the reality: an organization has committed its roadmap to a project whose downside it cannot bound.
What should change this reality is the ability to obtain the capabilities they are migrating for
without the migration.
Adding an
orchestration layer above existing systems delivers modern capabilities, faster delivery, personalization, and publishing without a development ticket, while the content platform, the commerce engine, and the customer data stay exactly where they are.
Uniform's
architecture connects systems rather than consolidating them; therefore, capabilities are added in increments, empowering the organization to stop, reverse, or expand as needed.
Choosing an
incremental migration with Uniform changes both the risk profile and
timeline. A reality you won’t have to wager 12 months of business, marketing and IT operations, or an overrun budget to find out.